Iowa State's three likeliest paths to the Big 12 Championship game; tiebreaker scenarios (2024)

AMES — Everything starts with Iowa State winning out.

None of the most-likely scenarios crafted to get Iowa State into the Big 12 Championship Game work without the Cyclones beating Utah on Saturday and Kansas State to end the season.

So, that’s exactly what the Cyclones are focused on.

“We know it’s a tight race right now, but we’re just trying the best to focus on ourselves, do what we can and ... whatever happens, it happens,” ISU tight end Gabe Burkle said. “We just want to put ourselves in the best spot possible for what we want.”

Here are the conference’s standings, tiebreaker rules and the most-likely scenarios for Iowa State to reach the Big 12 Championship Game.

Big 12 standings

The Big 12’s top two teams will meet Dec. 7 in Arlington, Texas, for the Big 12 Championship Game. Iowa State appeared in the Conference Championship in 2020, losing to Oklahoma.

BYU (9-1 overall, 6-1 Big 12)

Colorado (8-2, 6-1)

Arizona State (8-2, 5-2)

Iowa State (8-2, 5-2)

Kansas State (7-3, 4-3)

Baylor (6-4, 4-3)

TCU (6-4, 4-3)

Texas Tech (6-4, 4-3)

West Virginia (5-5, 4-3)

Cincinnati (5-5, 3-4)

Houston (4-6, 3-4)

Kansas (4-6, 3-4)

Arizona (4-6, 2-5)

UCF (4-6, 2-5)

Utah (4-6, 1-6)

Oklahoma State (3-7, 0-7)

What are the Big 12’s tiebreakers?

Tiebreakers between two teams:

a. Head-to-head competition among the two tied teams.

b. Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams.

c. Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the Conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.

d. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., the strength of conference schedule)

e. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. Current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1 shall not be included.

f. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games

g. Coin toss

Tiebreakers between two or more teams

In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple team tiebreaker will repeat the tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.

a. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams:

1. If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two team or three or more team tie).

2. If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker.

b. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.

c. Record of the three (or more) tied teams against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.

d. Record of the three (or more) tied teams based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule)

e. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. (Current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1) shall not be included.

f. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games

g. Coin toss

How can Iowa State make the Big 12 Championship Game?

All of the following scenarios for ISU making the Big 12 Championship Game include winning its final two games. Here are the most-likely ways ISU will get in.

The most-likely path

BYU loses to Arizona State.

Colorado loses to Kansas.

This scenario would pit Iowa State against Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship game.

Arizona State is hot off of wins against Kansas State and UCF and is a three-point favorite Saturday against BYU. Colorado is favored by 2.5 points at Kansas, a team that has defeated ranked opponents in back-to-back weeks.

Another possibility

Colorado wins out.

Arizona State beats BYU, loses to Arizona.

This scenario puts Colorado and Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship.

Colorado will be favored in both its remaining games. If Arizona State beats Kansas and loses at Arizona (where the Wildcats would love nothing more than to spoil their rival’s season), the Cyclones are in.

A longer shot

BYU wins out.

Colorado loses to Kansas, beats Oklahoma State.

Texas Tech loses to either Oklahoma State or West Virginia.

This scenario puts Iowa State and BYU in Arlington.

The chaos and tightness of the Big 12 was expected. There are still nine teams with a mathematical chance of playing for the Big 12 Championship. You can play around with the matchups and create your with the hypotheticals here: https://big12.biw.app/